Thailand may be hotter by 4 degrees in next 3 decades

[KoratCat]

GLOBAL WARMING

Thailand may be hotter by 4 degrees in next 3 decades

In the next 35 years, the temperature in Thailand will rise by 4 degrees Celsius, which will result in the eastern provinces getting inundated in 300 millimetres of rainfall every year, an expert said yesterday.

The Southeast Asia START Regional Research Centre's director Arnon Sanidwong na Ayudhaya was speaking at an academic conference held by the Office of the Higher Education Commission yesterday.

His analysis was based on eight climate prediction models over the next 35-55 years.

The models, dividing Thailand into eight geological and geographic zones and looking into factors including temperature, rainfall and sea-level changes, found that in the next 35 years the country's average temperature would rise by 3-4 degrees, particularly in the mountainous areas of the North.

The temperatures would rise in the rainy season and winter months, thus further narrowing the difference between summer and winter times, he said.

Climate change also functions as a reinforcing factor for the severe urban heat island phenomenon, in which a metropolitan area is significantly warmer than its surroundings at all times, he said. The rise in temperature would affect people's metabolic systems and cause deaths. The models also showed that sea levels would rise by 14-15 centimetres, affecting the coastal areas from Bangkok to Rayong and Phetchaburi all the way to Narathiwat, he said.

Levels of rainfall would also be different from one place to another. For example, the Northeast and the West could have about 70-100mm of rain, while the East might end up with 300mm, leading to severe flooding.

Citing various countries' climate models, Arnon pointed out that by the year 2100, the number of severe floods would rise and occur three to six times in every 100 years compared with the previous frequency of one such flood in a century. Since Thailand is sensitive to floods and landslides, he said settlements on riverbanks and coastal areas should be reviewed because these areas face a severe risk of flooding in the future. If nothing is done to prevent this, the country will suffer economic and social losses, he said.

Since many governments are seeking help from environment experts, he said this year's report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) would be more in line with facts.

Chaowalit Silpathong, director of the Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency, said Thailand would be affected by global warming in the form of flooding. Citing satellite photos from 2005 until now that showed more frequent flooding, usually in the same locations, he said, Thailand's sea levels rose by 2.8-4.3cm, much higher than the world's average rate of 1.8cm per year.

In related news, homes and schools along the Chao Phya River in Pathum Thani's Sam Khok district yesterday had to be emptied and blocked off with sandbags as the level of the river rose continuously because of upstream run-offs.

Meanwhile 60 homes in low-lying Tambon Phong Pheng of Angthong's Pa Moke district were inundated, prompting the local administrative organisation to provide sandbags so villagers could set up barriers to prevent further flooding.

The Nation